A new chart released by the Washington Post shows how severely Hillary Clinton is collapsing in the polls. It’s not comparable to 2008 – according to the Daily Caller it’s much, much worse.
While Hillary narrowly lost the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008, she actually held a national lead of about 20 points all the way up to the Iowa caucuses. This time around, her national lead is disintegrating with the caucuses still almost three weeks away.
Here’s what Chris Cilizza of The Fix tweeted out:
— Chris Cillizza (@CillizzaCNN) January 14, 2016
Clinton’s situation in New Hampshire is also worse than in 2008. In 2008, she held a consistent lead in polls until immediately before the primary vote (and ultimately won the state). In 2016, Clinton has been trailing for over a month, with little improvement.
Hillary’s only sign of hope is in Iowa, where Clinton is still holding a small lead of under five points. In 2008, she was already trailing at this point in the race. However, her lead in Iowa is dropping far faster than it ever did in 2008, falling over ten points in the past week.
And if things are looking dicey for Clinton now, she has reason to be even more fearful. As the Post notes, Clinton’s lead suffered an instant 12-point drop in 2008 as well, but only after she suffered a defeat to Obama in Iowa. If a subsequent drop and similar defeat occurs this time around, her campaign could be toast.
On the other hand, Clinton has some reasons for optimism. In 2008, she decisively lost black voters to Obama, but in this cycle it is Sanders who is weak with non-whites, and who will therefore likely suffer as the campaign moves out of heavily-white Iowa and New Hampshire.
The obvious question is: Can Hillary hang on and fend off Bernie Sanders to get the Democratic nomination?